Fed exit QE, China prevention debt risk, the interest rate the central shift, real estate and other asset prices under pressure, difficult to upgrade the central sector valuations, in 2014 the industry challenges and opportunities coexist. 14 years, mainly in the real estate development industry competition among enterprises as the main pattern, the advantage of the business model will determine the company's growth.
　　salable stock index edged up individual mortgages mom continued to narrow
　　Last week 17 cities area of ??3.027 million square meters in total turnover, down 8.9% price index fell 0.5%, of which the price gainers, Chongqing and Dongguan, Ningbo and Wuhan city among the top 15 new decline may sales area increased by 21.2% qoq, salable stock index was up 0.4% MoM, three-month moving average of the number of months to go to 11.9,3 month moving average wholesale ratio was 1.25, last week increased.
　　individual mortgages continued to narrow, "tight money" affect the valuation: 2013 1-12 months, the real estate development enterprise funds apartment in shanghaiavailable 12.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 26.5%, the growth rate down 1.1 over 1-11 months percentage points. Which, domestic loans 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 33.1%, personal mortgage loans 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 33.3%, further narrowing 3.2 percentage points. The growth rate declined slightly funds in place, and this month, a departure from the trend of development and investment growth. Nearly two months of real estate transactions to a certain extent by the negative impact of the mortgage amount is limited, and validated on liquidity concerns, while the valuation of killing large. In front investment, sales showed steady state for the better case, if 14 years be able to return to the market as a whole is relatively loose liquidity, the overall fundamentals are still worth optimistic judgments.
　　estate companies try to transition smoothly put the central bank to control annual credit
　　As of last week, 26 of housing prices has 25 listed companies announced a 13-year annual sales data, sales data has been released in 2013 full-year sales of the company increased by 30.03 percent, Country Garden, SOL, financial Chong, Shimao Property and other eye-catching performance. In addition, South Building Bulletin happy to get to China Guan they sign a cooperation agreement, the announcement of major shareholders Sunshine City, built executives holdings of shares announcement.
　　For the stock market, the real estate sector is currently facing a dilemma underestimate the value, volume and price due to the physical market decline stage are at a high level, can not be changed in the short term while real estate companies have started restructuring efforts, including the ringleader Vanke. 2014 will undoubtedly be a transition adjustment, the look of the transformation model to stand out from the valuation of real estate companies slough. Current valuation is low, refinancing becomes tasteless, while holdings of major shareholders and management initiatives will more and more, and this is usually at the bottom of the valuation mark stage.
　　People's Bank on January 17, held in 2014 working conference on money and credit, said off-year lending rate vigilant and ask monetary and credit sector-led financial institutions to rationalize the granting of loans to prevent excessive expansion of assets. The move is designed to control annual credit smooth delivery, achieve steady growth in the money supply, to avoid macroeconomic volatility, expected limited impact on real estate sales. Each grade
　　provisional remedy to relieve liquidity pressures higher interest rates
　　since January 20, 2014, the People's Bank of standing loan facilities to carry out a pilot operation in Beijing, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei, Shanxi, Zhejiang, Jilin, Henan, Shenzhen, the People's Bank branches to comply with local small and medium financial institutions to provide short-term liquidity conditions support.
　　pilot points include: 1) The People's Bank branch standing borrowing convenient operation objects include city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, rurashanghai apartments for rentl cooperative banks and rural credit cooperatives, small and medium financial institutions four 2) a pilot implementation of quota management, limit 1200 Billion 3) before the overnight period is divided into various grades, three grades 7 and 14 days, New Year tentative interest rate of 5%, 7%, 8%, once the lending or repo rate pledge to break above the level of interest rates, qualified guides local financial institutions to apply for legal standing loan facilities.
　　before and after the Spring Festival in 2013, four financial institutions 1,2 month average daily volume of net integration were 1904,1791 billion in December 2013 four financial institutions in the amount of 145.6 billion yuan average daily net borrowing, so 1200 Use the amount of one hundred million yuan for the four financial institutions to ease funding pressures are significant. Standing loan facilities, covering four categories of financial institutions, is targeted means to cope with the Spring Festival seasonal liquidity pressures triggered once the operating conditions of the money market interest rate, liquidity will limit the outbreak put liquidity events.
　　all grades tentative high interest rates, liquidity management did not reveal a clear shift information. Overnight will notify the pilot before the Spring Festival, 7 and 14 days, all grades tentative interest rate of 5%, 7%, 8%, proposed to effectively play the standing lending rates as money market rates convenience corridor ceiling function. From the second half of 2013 the currency market statistics to see, according to the provisional rates only in June, October, December trigger conditions are met, the number of days to trigger the operation were 13 days, five days, three days, three-month liquidity pressures not small. Super savings rate is expected by the end of December to reach 3%. Recent series of central bank liquidity operations will limit the total supply sudden contraction appears. Possible after the Spring Festival effect, the total amount of liquidity still in the marginal improvement in the state.
　　facilitate lending branches standing pilot will significantly reduce the liquidity pressure under stress conditions, limitations, mobility extreme condition occurs while the high interest rates of various grades of provisional central bank liquidity management no significant shift. The total amount of support, the central bank under the hapartments for rent shanghaiedge nearly two months of total liquidity improved significantly, but mainly reflected in the short end of the interest rate down, risk-free rate of return that is difficult to restrict the development of financial institutions debt down quickly.